Showing posts with label World. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World. Show all posts

Wall Street opens modestly higher after data


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks opened slightly higher on Friday after a trio of positive economic data points, and further gains were expected to be modest with the benchmark S&P index near five-year highs.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 18.97 points, or 0.14 percent, at 13,963.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 3.05 points, or 0.20 percent, at 1,512.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 13.59 points, or 0.43 percent, at 3,178.72.


(Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Bernadette Baum)



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Wall Street flat after claims data, retailers' sales

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were little changed on Thursday after data showed modest improvement in the labor market and retailers posted mixed monthly sales.


Weekly initial jobless claims dipped last week, with the four-week moving average falling to its lowest level since March 2008, signaling the economy continues to recover slowly.


A separate report said fourth-quarter productivity registered its biggest drop in nearly two years, while unit labor costs jumped 4.5 percent, more than economists expected.


"Claims didn't look too exciting. They are pretty much in line. The bigger surprise was the jump in unit labor costs that was pretty substantial," said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois.


"Overall the market took the whole thing in stride."


Recent data has pointed to a slow improvement in the economy, but one without enough strength to cause the Federal Reserve to abandon its easy monetary policy, which has helped the benchmark S&P index to climb 6 percent this year.


"We are probably in a pretty stable policy regime from the Fed standpoint, certainly until midyear, then as we get later in the year if we are seeing the economy picking up, then maybe they start taking their foot off the accelerator a little bit," said Jankovskis.


Several U.S. retailers reported mixed January sales results, as consumers faced a hit to their take-home pay from higher payroll taxes. The S&P retail index <.spxrt> gained 0.3 percent.


Macy's Inc rose 1.4 percent to $40.04 after reporting January same store sales rose 11.7 percent.


But Ann Inc dropped 7.9 percent to $30.20 after forecasting fourth-quarter sales below analysts' expectations.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 13.90 points, or 0.10 percent, to 13,972.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> dropped 0.43 points, or 0.03 percent, to 1,511.69. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> dropped 3.04 points, or 0.10 percent, to 3,165.43.


Fund manager David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital on Thursday said it has sued Apple Inc and said the company needs to do more to unlock value for shareholders. Apple shares gained 1 percent to $459.27.


Akami Technologies Inc lost 17.8 percent to $34.17 as the worst performer on the S&P 500 after the Internet content delivery company forecast current-quarter revenue below analysts' expectations.


According to Thomson Reuters data through Thursday morning, of 317 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 69 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, above a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters.


Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies rose 5 percent, according to the data, above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season.


The European Central Bank held its main interest rate unchanged at 0.75 percent, as expected.


(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Kenneth Barry)



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Wall Street to open lower after Tuesday rally, results eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were poised to open lower Wednesday, indicating the S&P 500 may retreat as it faces resistance to further gains beyond five-year highs in the wake of a 1-percent rally on Tuesday.


A 6-percent advance this year so far has lifted the S&P 500 index to its highest since December 2007, while the Dow <.dji> briefly climbed above 14,000, making it a challenge for investors to continue pushing the equity market upward amid a dearth of fresh trading incentives.


Walt Disney Co beat estimates for quarterly adjusted earnings and said it expected the next few quarters to be better, with a stronger lineup of movies and rising attendance at its theme parks. Shares advanced 2.8 percent to $55.81 in premarket trading.


"You knew a correction was coming; the question was whether they were going to tease you and get it close and then start selling it off or get it up to 14,000 and then start to make a move to the sell side," said Gordon Charlop, managing director at Rosenblatt Securities in New York.


"We got a quick move and it's really just not healthy for markets to go one way, so the idea that a little bit of a correction is due isn't troublesome to me at all."


According to Thomson Reuters data through Tuesday morning, of 278 companies in the S&P 500 <.spx> that have reported earnings, 68.7 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, above a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters. In terms of revenue, 66 percent of companies have topped forecasts.


In another positive sign for profits, fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are now expected to grow 4.5 percent, according to the data, above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season.


S&P 500 futures fell 6 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures lost 51 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 9.75 points.


The benchmark S&P index rose 1.04 percent Tuesday, its biggest percentage gain since a 2.5-percent advance on January 2, when legislators sidestepped a "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and tax hikes that could have hurt a fragile U.S. economic recovery.


Visa , the world's largest credit and debit card network, is expected to report earnings per share of $1.79 for its first quarter, up from $1.49 a year earlier. Smaller rival MasterCard recently reported better-than-expected results but said its revenue growth could slow in the first half of the year due to economic uncertainty.


Ralph Lauren Corp climbed 5.5 percent to $174 in premarket trading after the fashion company and retailer reported holiday quarter sales and profits that showed renewed momentum.


Time Warner Inc gained 3.1 percent to $51.49 before the bell after reporting higher fourth-quarter profit that beat Wall Street estimates, as growth in its cable networks offset declines in its film, TV entertainment and publishing units.


(Editing by Bernadette Baum)



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Wall Street rebounds from steep decline


NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, rebounding from their worst daily loss since November in the prior session.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 84.21 points, or 0.61 percent, at 13,964.29. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 9.12 points, or 0.61 percent, at 1,504.83. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 10.31 points, or 0.33 percent, at 3,141.48.


(Reporting By Angela Moon; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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Wall Street opens lower after recent gains


NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened lower on Monday, dipping after a recent rally that took the S&P 500 to a five-year high and the Dow to 14,000 for the first time since October 2007.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was down 58.67 points, or 0.42 percent, at 13,951.12. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 6.84 points, or 0.45 percent, at 1,506.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 18.33 points, or 0.58 percent, at 3,160.77.


(Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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Alien Moons May Be Easier to Photograph Than Planets






Scientists looking for habitable worlds to photograph could have better luck searching for moons than for alien planets, scientists say. A moon heated by the pull of its parent planet could be visible even when the planet is hidden from view.


Powered by gravitational tugging from a planet, these exomoons would remain bright throughout their lifetimes, not just in their youth. This means stars of various ages could be hosting planets with photogenic moons.






“Unlike traditional direct imaging, there’s no star that would be a bad candidate,” researcher Mary Anne Peters told SPACE.com.


Kneading alien moons


As a moon travels around its planet, the larger body tries to circularize the orbit of the smaller. But if the planet hosts more than one moon, a power struggle may ensue as the smaller bodies tug at one another. The resulting heat radiates from the moon, making it bright enough to show up in a visual image. [9 Exoplanets That Could Host Alien Life]


Planets emit heat for only a short time after their formation, limiting how long they can be directly imaged. But tidally heated moons would continue to give off heat throughout their lifetimes.


How much heating a moon undergoes would depend on its location. A tighter orbit results in stronger gravitational tugs and a brighter image. But too close would be fatal.


“If it gets too close, it would be torn into a ring, such as the one around Saturn,” Peters said.


On the other hand, too far away would leave the moon too cool and dim to be imaged.


Just how common are such tidally heated moons? Of the 146 moons in the Earth’s solar system, four are tidally locked.


Io, Europa, and Ganymede orbit Jupiter. Their tugs on one another counteract the attempts of the gas giant to circularize their orbit. All three experience some form of tidal heating, with the closest, Io, feeling the strongest effects.


“Jupiter basically kneads Io and heats the interior by deforming it,” Phillips said.


This excess energy radiates from Io, making it brighter. Saturn’s moon Enceladus also experiences similar pressure as it interacts with the planet and other moons.


No such moons have been discovered outside the solar system, though Kepler, the space observatory orbiting the sun, should be sensitive enough to spot exomoons.


“There has to be at least two moons there, or the tidal heating will go away on very short times, so it only lasts a very small fraction of the lifetime of that system,” Peters said.


In most cases, only the closest moons would be hot and bright enough to be imaged.


But they also would have to be big enough. Io, for example, is less than a third as wide as Earth ? too small to image from afar. If it were Earth-size, it would be bright enough to detect with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope, according to Peters.


Imaging hot moons doesn’t depend on a new space telescope, however.


“As far as current instrumentation, I think Spitzer would have the best chance of seeing these things,” Peters said. Kepler should also be able to register a distant moon. But she emphasized that the James Webb telescope would be the best possible tool.


The research was presented at the 221st meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Long Beach, California last month.


The new habitable zone


Warmed by their planet rather than their star, tidally heated moons could also shift the definition of the habitable zone, the region where liquid water could exist on a body, making it ideal for the generation of life. For water to exist, the planet — or moon — must be not too hot and not too cold. Traditionally, the region is defined by the distance from the star, but a tidally heated planet doesn’t rely on its sun.


“You could have this [heating] occur at any distance, the distance of Mars or the distance of Pluto,” Peters said.


When it comes to imaging, the long range is a plus. A planet in its sun’s habitable zone can find itself drowned out by the light from its star. But a distantly orbiting exomoon wouldn’t have that complication.


Like Io and Enceladus, tidally heated exomoons would be more likely to be volcanically active, Peters said. Such volcanism could aid in the creation of an atmosphere on the moon, another helpful ingredient when it comes to the evolution of life.


Io has a very thin atmosphere, but Peters explained that has more to do with its small size. Io lacks the gravity to hold onto a significant atmosphere. But things could be different with a larger moon.


“There’s no reason why these tidally heated objects could not be habitable,” Peters said.


Follow SPACE.com on Twitter @Spacedotcom. We’re also on Facebook & Google+


Copyright 2013 SPACE.com, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Space and Astronomy News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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"Great Rotation"- A Wall Street fairy tale?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's current jubilant narrative is that a rush into stocks by small investors has sparked a "great rotation" out of bonds and into equities that will power the bull market to new heights.


That sounds good, but there's a snag: The evidence for this is a few weeks of bullish fund flows that are hardly unusual for January.


Late-stage bull markets are typically marked by an influx of small investors coming late to the party - such as when your waiter starts giving you stock tips. For that to happen you need a good story. The "great rotation," with its monumental tone, is the perfect narrative to make you feel like you're missing out.


Even if something approaching a "great rotation" has begun, it is not necessarily bullish for markets. Those who think they are coming early to the party may actually be arriving late.


Investors pumped $20.7 billion into stocks in the first four weeks of the year, the strongest four-week run since April 2000, according to Lipper. But that pales in comparison with the $410 billion yanked from those funds since the start of 2008.


"I'm not sure you want to take a couple of weeks and extrapolate it into whatever trend you want," said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup. "We have had instances where equity flows have picked up in the last two, three, four years when markets have picked up. They've generally not been signals of a continuation of that trend."


The S&P 500 rose 5 percent in January, its best month since October 2011 and its best January since 1997, driving speculation that retail investors were flooding back into the stock market.


Heading into another busy week of earnings, the equity market is knocking on the door of all-time highs due to positive sentiment in stocks, and that can't be ignored entirely. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> ended the week about 4 percent from an all-time high touched in October 2007.


Next week will bring results from insurers Allstate and The Hartford , as well as from Walt Disney , Coca-Cola Enterprises and Visa .


But a comparison of flows in January, a seasonal strong month for the stock market, shows that this January, while strong, is not that unusual. In January 2011 investors moved $23.9 billion into stock funds and $28.6 billion in 2006, but neither foreshadowed massive inflows the rest of that year. Furthermore, in 2006 the market gained more than 13 percent while in 2011 it was flat.


Strong inflows in January can happen for a number of reasons. There were a lot of special dividends issued in December that need reinvesting, and some of the funds raised in December tax-selling also find their way back into the market.


During the height of the tech bubble in 2000, when retail investors were really embracing stocks, a staggering $42.7 billion flowed into equities in January of that year, double the amount that flowed in this January. That didn't end well, as stocks peaked in March of that year before dropping over the next two-plus years.


MOM AND POP STILL WARY


Arguing against a 'great rotation' is not necessarily a bearish argument against stocks. The stock market has done well since the crisis. Despite the huge outflows, the S&P 500 has risen more than 120 percent since March 2009 on a slowly improving economy and corporate earnings.


This earnings season, a majority of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings forecast. That's also the case for revenue, which is a departure from the previous two reporting periods where less than 50 percent of companies beat revenue expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.


Meanwhile, those on the front lines say mom and pop investors are still wary of equities after the financial crisis.


"A lot of people I talk to are very reluctant to make an emotional commitment to the stock market and regardless of income activity in January, I think that's still the case," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Columbia Management Advisors in Boston, where he helps oversee $571 billion.


Joy, speaking from a conference in Phoenix, says most of the people asking him about the "great rotation" are fund management industry insiders who are interested in the extra business a flood of stock investors would bring.


He also pointed out that flows into bond funds were positive in the month of January, hardly an indication of a rotation.


Citi's Levkovich also argues that bond investors are unlikely to give up a 30-year rally in bonds so quickly. He said stocks only began to see consistent outflows 26 months after the tech bubble burst in March 2000. By that reading it could be another year before a serious rotation begins.


On top of that, substantial flows continue to make their way into bonds, even if it isn't low-yielding government debt. January 2013 was the second best January on record for the issuance of U.S. high-grade debt, with $111.725 billion issued during the month, according to International Finance Review.


Bill Gross, who runs the $285 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, commented on Twitter on Thursday that "January flows at Pimco show few signs of bond/stock rotation," adding that cash and money markets may be the source of inflows into stocks.


Indeed, the evidence suggests some of the money that went into stock funds in January came from money markets after a period in December when investors, worried about the budget uncertainty in Washington, started parking money in late 2012.


Data from iMoneyNet shows investors placed $123 billion in money market funds in the last two months of the year. In two weeks in January investors withdrew $31.45 billion of that, the most since March 2012. But later in the month money actually started flowing back.


(Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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Exxon’s 2012 profit of $44.9B just misses record






Exxon Mobil Corp. nearly set a record for annual profit. The oil giant reported Friday that 2012 net income was $ 44.88 billion, just $ 340 million — less than 1 percent — short of the company’s record set in 2008, when crude oil prices hit an all-time high. Exxon‘s profit for the last 10 years totals $ 343.4 billion.


— $ 44.88 billion in 2012






— $ 41.06 billion in 2011


— $ 30.46 billion in 2010


— $ 19.28 billion in 2009


— $ 45.22 billion in 2008


— $ 40.61 billion in 2007


— $ 39.50 billion in 2006


— $ 36.13 billion in 2005


— $ 25.33 billion in 2004


— $ 20.96 billion in 2003


Source: Exxon Mobil annual reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission


Energy News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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"Great Rotation"- A Wall Street fairy tale?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's current jubilant narrative is that a rush into stocks by small investors has sparked a "great rotation" out of bonds and into equities that will power the bull market to new heights.


That sounds good, but there's a snag: The evidence for this is a few weeks of bullish fund flows that are hardly unusual for January.


Late-stage bull markets are typically marked by an influx of small investors coming late to the party - such as when your waiter starts giving you stock tips. For that to happen you need a good story. The "great rotation," with its monumental tone, is the perfect narrative to make you feel like you're missing out.


Even if something approaching a "great rotation" has begun, it is not necessarily bullish for markets. Those who think they are coming early to the party may actually be arriving late.


Investors pumped $20.7 billion into stocks in the first four weeks of the year, the strongest four-week run since April 2000, according to Lipper. But that pales in comparison with the $410 billion yanked from those funds since the start of 2008.


"I'm not sure you want to take a couple of weeks and extrapolate it into whatever trend you want," said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup. "We have had instances where equity flows have picked up in the last two, three, four years when markets have picked up. They've generally not been signals of a continuation of that trend."


The S&P 500 rose 5 percent in January, its best month since October 2011 and its best January since 1997, driving speculation that retail investors were flooding back into the stock market.


Heading into another busy week of earnings, the equity market is knocking on the door of all-time highs due to positive sentiment in stocks, and that can't be ignored entirely. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> ended the week about 4 percent from an all-time high touched in October 2007.


Next week will bring results from insurers Allstate and The Hartford , as well as from Walt Disney , Coca-Cola Enterprises and Visa .


But a comparison of flows in January, a seasonal strong month for the stock market, shows that this January, while strong, is not that unusual. In January 2011 investors moved $23.9 billion into stock funds and $28.6 billion in 2006, but neither foreshadowed massive inflows the rest of that year. Furthermore, in 2006 the market gained more than 13 percent while in 2011 it was flat.


Strong inflows in January can happen for a number of reasons. There were a lot of special dividends issued in December that need reinvesting, and some of the funds raised in December tax-selling also find their way back into the market.


During the height of the tech bubble in 2000, when retail investors were really embracing stocks, a staggering $42.7 billion flowed into equities in January of that year, double the amount that flowed in this January. That didn't end well, as stocks peaked in March of that year before dropping over the next two-plus years.


MOM AND POP STILL WARY


Arguing against a 'great rotation' is not necessarily a bearish argument against stocks. The stock market has done well since the crisis. Despite the huge outflows, the S&P 500 has risen more than 120 percent since March 2009 on a slowly improving economy and corporate earnings.


This earnings season, a majority of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings forecast. That's also the case for revenue, which is a departure from the previous two reporting periods where less than 50 percent of companies beat revenue expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.


Meanwhile, those on the front lines say mom and pop investors are still wary of equities after the financial crisis.


"A lot of people I talk to are very reluctant to make an emotional commitment to the stock market and regardless of income activity in January, I think that's still the case," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Columbia Management Advisors in Boston, where he helps oversee $571 billion.


Joy, speaking from a conference in Phoenix, says most of the people asking him about the "great rotation" are fund management industry insiders who are interested in the extra business a flood of stock investors would bring.


He also pointed out that flows into bond funds were positive in the month of January, hardly an indication of a rotation.


Citi's Levkovich also argues that bond investors are unlikely to give up a 30-year rally in bonds so quickly. He said stocks only began to see consistent outflows 26 months after the tech bubble burst in March 2000. By that reading it could be another year before a serious rotation begins.


On top of that, substantial flows continue to make their way into bonds, even if it isn't low-yielding government debt. January 2013 was the second best January on record for the issuance of U.S. high-grade debt, with $111.725 billion issued during the month, according to International Finance Review.


Bill Gross, who runs the $285 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, commented on Twitter on Thursday that "January flows at Pimco show few signs of bond/stock rotation," adding that cash and money markets may be the source of inflows into stocks.


Indeed, the evidence suggests some of the money that went into stock funds in January came from money markets after a period in December when investors, worried about the budget uncertainty in Washington, started parking money in late 2012.


Data from iMoneyNet shows investors placed $123 billion in money market funds in the last two months of the year. In two weeks in January investors withdrew $31.45 billion of that, the most since March 2012. But later in the month money actually started flowing back.


(Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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The Untold Story: Columbia Shuttle Disaster and Mysterious ‘Day 2 Object’






A decade has passed since the ill-fated Columbia space shuttle orbiter and its seven-person crew ended their journey in catastrophe. During its Feb. 1, 2003 plunge back to Earth, the vehicle broke apart, with wreckage strewn across east Texas and western Louisiana.


Painstaking work by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) later identified the physical cause of the disaster as damage to Columbia‘s left wing that occurred just 81.9 seconds after launch.






A piece of insulating foam separated from the left “bipod ramp” that connected the shuttle’s fuel tank to the orbiter, gouging a hole in a reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) panel on the leading edge of Columbia’s left wing.


Now, 10 years later, new information is coming to light on an event early in Columbia’s mission, often termed the “Flight Day 2 Object.”


When added to the wealth of information already known about how the Columbia accident occurred, this story reinforces a picture of technical slip-ups, a lack of effective communications and a failure of early detection and reaction to anomalies, all of which contributed to the disaster. [Video: Astronaut Jerry Ross Remembers Columbia]


Panel 8


About a day after launch on Jan. 16, 2003, with Columbia’s crew settling into its mission, an object roughly the size of a notebook computer drifted away from the orbiter out into space.


According to a source that asked not to be named, “due to a procedural issue” the object was not recognized during Columbia’s 16-day mission by the Air Force Space Command (AFSPC). That AFSPC procedure was later corrected.


The Flight Day 2 object, according to a source then working with the CAIB to help discern the cause of the Columbia calamity, was a fragment of the RCC panel on the orbiter’s wing. A team of experts concluded that the departing piece had been lodged within the left wing by aerodynamic forces on Columbia’s liftoff. It was set adrift after the orbiter reached space.


The CAIB made the final conclusion that the foam-shedding incident on Columbia’s takeoff affected panel 8 of the RCC heat-shielding, which was located on the orbiter’s leading edge. That foam strike punctured a hole in the RCC panel roughly 16 inches (41 centimeters) by 16 inches. Analysts estimated that a hole as small as 10 inches (25 cm) across could have caused the orbiter to be destroyed on re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere.


That left-wing damage permitted the penetration of hot, re-entry gases, which led to the loss of Columbia and its crew. Superheated air entered the leading-edge insulation and progressively melted the aluminum structure of the left wing, until increasing aerodynamic forces led to loss of control, failure of the wing and disintegration of the orbiter.


From a re-entry standpoint, Columbia broke up very late,  at a low altitude, roughly 30 to 35 miles (50 to 55 kilometers) above Earth, where heating had almost ceased. The breakup was primarily mechanical, due to localized heating that occurred earlier in the re-entry process.


Serendipitous observations


A number of experts who studied the loss of Columbia and its crew shared their theories on the cause of the Flight Day 2 incident with SPACE.com.


Early on, experts had thought that perhaps a piece of orbital debris hit the shuttle.


In post-disaster work, an Air Force Space Command Space Analysis Center team worked with the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), a worldwide system of U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force-operated ground-based radars and optical sensors.


That team and SSN operators went back after Columbia’s demise to see if there had been any serendipitous observations taken the orbiter during its mission by accident, among the wealth of photos of the sky during that period.


Indeed, that team did find some observations and noted there was another piece of debris in orbit with Columbia starting on Day 2 of its flight. Aiding in this identification was the fact that Columbia had been in a unique orbit, for not only the shuttle but virtually any other satellite, so there wasn’t much else in the orbit.


After noting the Day 2 object, researchers began an investigation to determine the object’s separation velocity and its time of release from Columbia.


Investigators hoped to see if the object departed the orbiter at high velocity, indicating a possible collision, or if it came off at low velocity, signifying something drifting away, perhaps out of Columbia’s cargo bay.


Radar information


With radar information on hand concerning the object’s size, and measurements of how quickly it decayed in Earth orbit, analysts could tell it was something with the dimensions of a notebook computer. Best estimates are that the Flight Day 2 object decayed from orbit on Jan. 20, disintegrating as it fell down through Earth’s atmosphere. The item was never given a satellite catalogue number since it decayed before its discovery.


The Air Force and SSN analysts worked closely with Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) specialists, all focused on understanding the object’s makeup and attempting to tag likely materials that had the right density. A final determination, according to a SPACE.com source, was that it was a piece of Columbia’s carbon-carbon leading edge.


“That determination encouraged NASA to continue their testing of firing foam at the leading edge … finally getting a result that very closely matched our analysis,” the source, who asked not to be named, said.


A post-disaster review of Columbia’s movements on Day 2 showed the detached object appeared to separate after the orbiter undertook a couple of maneuvers to change its orientation.


The Space Analysis Center team believed that aerodynamic forces on ascent had pushed the Day 2 object back into the wing and Columbia’s maneuvers subsequently shook the object loose.


Foam impact


Another view of the situation at the time is offered by a Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) member, Scott Hubbard, then director of the NASA Ames Research Center and currently professor of aeronautics and astronautics at Stanford University.


Hubbard played an instrumental role in spotlighting the cause of Columbia’s demise. To do so, he relied on computational modeling, reinforced by experimental testing with a large compressed-gas gun done by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) scientists and engineers in San Antonio, Texas. During the tests, scientists fired a piece of foam at a target at speeds comparable to what a falling piece of debris from the shuttle would have experienced. Researchers then observed the damage.


Hubbard oversaw those tests, which showed that a chunk of falling insulating foam from the large, exterior fuel tank could indeed punch a hole in the leading edge of the orbiter’s left wing — panel 8 of the RCC thermal protection system, to be exact.


“My decision to direct as definitive a test as possible of the foam impact on Columbia was driven by the desire to provide the crew and shuttle program with a clear, physical cause so that ‘return to flight’ could be carried out without hesitation,” Hubbard told SPACE.com.


While there was a significant collection of circumstantial evidence — film of launch, “black box” data and collected debris — Hubbard said he had the strong sense that NASA was not converging on an answer to such basic parameters as the size of the falling foam.


Uncertainty of observations


“During the CAIB deliberations, the radar data and analysis by AFRL was occasionally presented to the board, but the uncertainty of the observations and myriad initial interpretations did little to convince us that the mysterious ‘second day’ object was part of the orbiter,” Hubbard said. [Columbia Shuttle Disaster Explained (Infographic)]


“I can state quite unequivocally that the AFRL examination of the radar profile had no influence on the selection of the SwRI test parameters. Computational fluid dynamics analysis, the 35mm film data and emerging debris information had already convinced my team and me to aim at Panel 8 of the RCC.”


The AFRL did not issue their final summary report until July 20, 2003, nearly two weeks after the definitive SWRI tests, Hubbard said.


“It is worth noting that the SWRI tests did produce a large section of RCC that, had it floated away from the orbiter, may have resembled the 2nd day piece,” Hubbard said. “However, this observation is definitely post hoc and was not a test prediction.”


Air Force Space Command response


According to CAIB report findings, the Day 2 object was discovered after the accident during Air Force processing of space surveillance network data, which yielded 3,180 separate radar or optical observations from Air Force and Navy sensors. It was the post-accident, detailed examination of these observations that revealed the Day 2 object.


After SPACE.com requested help in clarifying why the Day 2 object was not recognized during the mission, and what procedural error had since been fixed, an Air Force Space Command spokesperson responded with a statement.


“The Space Control Center (now Joint Space Operations Center) did change a


space situational awareness process involving space shuttle missions after the space shuttle Columbia accident,” the AFSC statement notes. “Before the Columbia accident, the Space Control Center did conjunction analysis (collision avoidance) during space shuttle missions using NASA positional data which better modeled the predicted position of Columbia for the conjunction screenings since it was more accurate than the data from AF sensors.”


Determined in hindsight


The AFSC statement explains that the NASA positional data came from their sensors, which could more accurately detect and model small orbital adjustments of the shuttle during missions than could other methods. Since NASA provided this positional data, the Space Control Center processed AF sensor data for Columbia using only basic astrodynamic algorithms and models. These, however, failed to provide high enough fidelity to definitely separate potential debris from the space shuttle orbiter.


“After the space shuttle Columbia investigation, the Space Control Center, in conjunction with NASA, decided to add additional analyst time to search for objects in close proximity to the shuttle, using both NASA positional data and Air Force sensor data,” the statement explains.


“It was determined in hindsight that while the previous process of using NASA positional data made space shuttle collision avoidance better, it degraded the possibility of cataloguing debris near the space shuttle during missions. Changing the process to use both NASA positional data and Air Force sensor data improved the ability to possibly detect debris near the space shuttle during missions,” the statement concludes.


Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is former director of research for the National Commission on Space and has written for SPACE.com since 1999. He reported on the Columbia accident in 2003 and subsequent hearings of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.


Copyright 2013 SPACE.com, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Wall Street opens higher after payrolls data


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks opened higher on Friday as strong upward revisions to job creation estimates for December and November offset a slight disappointment in the January payroll report.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 98.56 points or 0.71 percent, to 13,959.14, the S&P 500 <.spx> gained 8.98 points or 0.6 percent, to 1,507.09 and the Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> added 21.41 points or 0.68 percent, to 3,163.54.


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Bernadette Baum)



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Refining margins boost 4Q profit at Exxon Mobil






DALLAS (AP) — Exxon Mobil Corp. said Friday that fourth-quarter earnings rose 6 percent to $ 9.95 billion with help from higher refining profit margins.


The company still makes most of its money by producing oil and gas, but that end of the business was less profitable than a year ago because of lower prices and production. Exxon made up the difference in the refining business.






The nation’s biggest oil company said Friday that net income equaled $ 2.20 per share, compared with $ 9.4 billion, or $ 1.97 per share, a year earlier.


Revenue fell 5 percent to $ 115.17 billion, a drop of $ 6.44 billion.


Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected profit of $ 1.99 per share on revenue of $ 115.22 billion.


Profit from exploration and production of oil and gas fell 12 percent but still totaled $ 7.76 billion, more than three-fourths of Exxon Mobil’s income for the quarter. Production fell 5 percent, oil prices dipped, and the company took in less money from asset sales.


Exxon Mobil produces most of its oil outside the United States. Profit from overseas production tumbled by nearly one-fifth, but Exxon partly offset that by boosting its profit from U.S. production by more than one-third.


Outside of exploration and production, most of Exxon’s other profit comes from refining and selling petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. That business did very well in the fourth quarter, earning $ 1.8 billion, an increase of more than $ 1.3 billion from a year earlier, mainly due to higher refining margins.


Other oil refiners have also reported better margins this earnings season as they switched from foreign crude to cheaper U.S. oil.


Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil said it spent $ 5 billion during the quarter buying back its own shares.


In trading before Friday’s opening bell, the shares were up 54 cents to $ 90.51. They gained 4 percent in January.


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Wall Street opens flat after mixed data


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks opened flat on Thursday as economic data continued to paint a mixed picture of the economy and as investors sifted through a host of corporate earnings reports.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was down 16.05 points, or 0.12 percent, at 13,894.37. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 1.81 points, or 0.12 percent, at 1,500.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 0.55 points, or 0.02 percent, at 3,141.75.


(Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Bernadette Baum)



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Venus Can Have’Comet-Like’ Atmosphere






The planet Venus sometimes looks less like a planet and more like a comet, scientists say.


Scientists with the European Space Agency have discovered that a part of the upper atmosphere of Venus — its ionosphere — acts surprisingly different depending on daily changes in the sun’s weather. The side of Venus’ ionosphere that faces away from the sun can billow outward like the tail of a comet, while the side facing the star remains tightly compacted, researchers said.






The discovery was made using ESA’s Venus Express spacecraft, which observed Venus’s ionosphere during a period of low solar wind in 2010 to see exactly how the sun affects the way the planet’s atmosphere functions. In 2013, the sun is expected to reach the peak of its 11-year solar activity cycle.


“As this significantly reduced solar wind hit Venus, Venus Express saw the planet’s ionosphere balloon outwards on the planet’s ‘downwind’ nightside, much like the shape of the ion tail seen streaming from a comet under similar conditions,” ESA officials said in a statement today (Jan. 29).


It only takes 30 to 60 minutes for the planet’s comet-like tail to form after the solar wind dies down. Researchers observed the ionosphere stretch to at least 7,521 miles (12,104 kilometers) from the planet, said Yong Wei, a scientist at the Max Planck Institute in Katlenburg, Germany who worked on this research.


Earth’s ionosphere never becomes comet-like largely because the planet has its own magnetic field that balances out the sun’s influence on the way the atmospheric layer is shaped. Venus, however, doesn’t have its own magnetic field and is therefore subject to the whims of the sun’s solar wind.


Researchers think that Mars behaves in much the same way. The Red Planet doesn’t have a magnetic field to mitigate the influence of the sun’s wind either.


The Venus Express spacecraft launched in 2005 and has been orbiting the second planet from the sun since 2006. The spacecraft is equipped with seven instruments to study the atmosphere and surface of Venus in extreme detail. The spacecraft is currently in an extended mission slated to last until 2014 .


Follow Miriam Kramer on Twitter @mirikramer or SPACE.com @Spacedotcom. We’re also on Facebook & Google+.


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Wall Street edges higher, Amazon offsets GDP

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were flat on Wednesday as an unexpectedly weak read on fourth-quarter economic activity was offset by strong results at Boeing and Amazon.com.


Equities continued to shrug off negative news, with the S&P 500 staying above 1,500, a level that market technicians call an inflection point that will determine the overall direction in the near term.


The first read showed gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent, far below expectations for growth of 1.1 percent. However, private sector employment topped forecasts, with the ADP National Employment report showing 192,000 jobs added in January, higher than the 165,000 expectation.


"The GDP report is the only negative shock we've had in a while, and it isn't terrible since it showed increases in business and consumer spending, which is what everyone wants to drive growth from here," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.


Deeper losses were prevented by a rise in both Boeing Co and Amazon.com Inc , which rallied after earnings beat expectations, continuing a trend this quarter of high-profile names advancing after results.


Amazon.com Inc rose 6.7 percent to $277.87 a day after reporting strong revenue growth. Boeing rose 0.5 percent to $74 after its results. The Dow component also said that while production continued on its Dreamliner jet, which has had technical problems recently, it was suspending delivery until clearance was granted by the Federal Aviation Administration.


Thomson Reuters data showed that of the 174 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings this season, 68.4 percent have been above analyst expectations, which is a higher proportion than over the past four quarters and above the average since 1994.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 5.50 points, or 0.04 percent, at 13,959.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 1.09 points, or 0.07 percent, at 1,508.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 5.73 points, or 0.18 percent, at 3,159.39.


The S&P 500 is on track to post its best monthly performance since October 2011 as investors poured $55 billion in new cash into stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in January, the biggest monthly inflow on record.


The Dow Jones industrial average has been flirting with 14,000, a level it hasn't seen since October 2007. Many analysts have said markets may need to take a pause.


"I'm neutral on markets at these levels, even though there aren't a lot of negatives out there," Frederick said. "At some point there will be a pullback, but the underlying trends remain strong and I think it is possible the S&P could hit a new all-time high sometime this quarter."


The all-time intraday high for the S&P 500 is 1,576.09, reached October 11, 2007.


The Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday, and while the central bank is expected to keep monetary policy on a steady path, intensive debates continue behind the scenes over when the controversial bond-buying program should be curtailed.


Chesapeake Energy Corp rose 11 percent to $21.11 as the S&P's biggest percentage gainer, a day after saying Aubrey McClendon would step down as chief executive after a year in which a series of Reuters investigations triggered civil and criminal probes of the second-largest U.S. natural gas producer.


(Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Nick Zieminski)



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Severe weather rakes US midsection






JACKSON, Miss. – A large storm system packing high winds, rain and some possible tornadoes tore across several states in the South and central U.S. on Wednesday, blacking out power to thousands, downing trees and damaging homes.


One death was reported when a large tree blew down on a shed in Nashville, Tenn., where a man was sheltering, police told Nashville broadcaster WTVF-TV. Authorities did not immediately release further details when contacted by The Associated Press.






In Arkansas, another person was reported injured by lightning in Arkansas during the storm’s eastward trek. The severe weather ushered in a cold front that was headed toward the Eastern seaboard as it dumped rain over a wide area.


The rapidly changing conditions created a risk of tornadoes in the nation’s midsection and South. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said the threat was greatest in recent hours in northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, southeast Missouri and much of Arkansas.


The center said it was investigating reports of at least four possible tornadoes in states including Arkansas and Mississippi. Hail ranging up to nearly golf-ball size was also reported in some areas and barns and other buildings collapsed or were damaged, the center added.


Thousands were reported without power in Tennessee, where tornado warnings and flash flood warnings were issued for several counties and a tractor-trailer truck was blown over by high winds.


Entergy Arkansas Inc. reported at least 9,000 power outages in several communities around Arkansas at the height of the storm, including in and around Little Rock.


Power lines fell, trees were toppled and some homes suffered damage to rooftops around the state, reports indicated. The weather service said suspected straight-line winds of up to 80 mph were reported in Arkansas late Tuesday night along with flooding in low-lying areas of Jonesboro in Arkansas’ northeastern corner.


Police in the Arkansas community of Monticello reported a person was injured by lightning late Tuesday but the injury was not life-threatening.


The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency urged residents to be on guard for severe thunderstorms, high winds and possible tornadoes Wednesday.


Earlier this week, a large swath of the Midwest and South bathed in unseasonably balmy temperatures that reached the high 70s in some areas.


The temperature in the central Missouri college town of Columbia reached 77 degrees on Monday, a record for January, and students exchanged their winter coats for shorts and flip-flops as freezing rain gave way to spring-like conditions. Foul weather made a quick return, however, with a Tuesday downpour that flooded some streets near the University of Missouri campus. Early morning snow was expected Wednesday.


Chicago residents also have been whiplashed by recent weather extremes. Workers who suffered through subzero temperatures and brutal wind chills a week ago strolled through downtown without coats Tuesday as temperatures soared into the mid-60s.


Carol Krueger, who lives in the Chicago suburb of North Hoffman Estates, noted that just a few days ago she was struggling to drive through blowing snow. All she needed Tuesday was a light jean jacket, although by Thursday temperatures were barely expected to reach 20 degrees.


“It’s bizarre, it’s scary,” Krueger said of the swiftly changing weather.


On Monday, the National Weather Service predicted a “moderate” risk of severe weather more than 24 hours out, only the fifth time it had done so in January in the past 15 years, said Gregory Carbin, the director of the Storm Prediction Center.


A system pulling warm weather from the Gulf of Mexico was colliding with a cold front moving in from the west, creating volatility.


The nation has had its longest break between tornado fatalities since detailed tornado records began being kept in 1950, according to the Storm Prediction Center and National Climatic Data Center. The last one was June 24, when a person was killed in a home in Highlands County, Fla. That was 220 days ago as of Tuesday.


The last day with multiple fatalities was June 4, when three people were killed in a mobile home in Scott County, Mo.



Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



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Wall Street little changed ahead of data


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were little changed at the open on Tuesday as investors were cautious following a recent rally and before consumer confidence data.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 10.09 points or 0.07 percent, to 13,892.02, the S&P 500 <.spx> gained 0.05 point to 1,500.23 and the Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> dropped 8.27 points or 0.26 percent, to 3,146.03.


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And Now, Back to Charles (Barkley) with the Weather






We realize there’s only so much time one can spend in a day watching new trailers, viral video clips, and shaky cell phone footage of people arguing on live television. This is why every day The Atlantic Wire highlights the videos that truly earn your five minutes (or less) of attention. Today:


RELATED: This Is How You Super Moonwalk; Old People Show Us the Dubstep






So, Charles Barkley is a semi-wonderful, candid announcer, and we fully respect his NBA career. A gifted meteorologist, however, Barkley is not — but that may be a good thing:


RELATED: ‘Morgan Freeman’ Reads ’50 Shades’; The Science of Orgasms


RELATED: Movie and Television Characters Need a Lesson in Talking Trash


Bless Manti Te’o and his silly story. Bless Katie Couric for devoting time to ask the Notre Dame football star about his silly story. But most of all, bless whoever put together this catchy and entertaining auto-tuning of the entire boondoggle:


RELATED: Let’s Welcome Back Hockey with This ESPN Commercial


RELATED: Yes, Someone Turned Their Dead Cat Into a Helicopter


Australia, you are scary:


And finally, this is a baby raccoon who has learned to give people high-fives. Send him your way, because you, you rock star, just made it through a Monday: 


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Wall Street flat after rally, Caterpillar advances

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were flat on Monday, with investors reluctant to make big bets following an extended equity rally, though strong data and results from Caterpillar kept a positive tone in markets.


The S&P 500 is coming off a streak of eight sessions of gains, the longest winning streak for the index in eight years. On Friday, it closed above 1,500 for the first time in more than five years.


Caterpillar Inc rose 1.8 percent to $97.24 after the Dow component reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations, though revenue was slightly below forecasts. The heavy machinery maker also said it expects China's economy to improve, though not at the rates of 2010 and 2011.


The results continued the trend of major firms posting strong quarters, contributing to major averages rising for four straight weeks.


"You can't find more of a global bellwether than Cat, and people are pleased with the number, which suggests there could be less concern about slowing growth in China after this," said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial in New York.


Thomson Reuters data through Friday showed that of the 147 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, 68 percent exceeded expectations. Since 1994, 62 percent of companies have topped expectations, while the average over the past four quarters stands at 65 percent.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 18.07 points, or 0.13 percent, at 13,914.05. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 0.07 points, or 0.00 percent, at 1,502.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 7.25 points, or 0.23 percent, at 3,156.97.


The S&P 500 on Friday closed at its highest since December 10, 2007, and the Dow ended at its highest since October 31, 2007. Over the past four weeks, the S&P has jumped 7.2 percent, suggesting markets may be vulnerable to a pullback if news disappoints.


Durable goods jumped 4.6 percent in December, a pace that far outstripped expectations for a rise of 1.8 percent.


"We continue to have a parade of better-than-expected economic reports. All-in-all it's a good picture. I think there's a good chance we've reached a point of recognition where people don't think the economy will crater," Kaufman said.


In addition to earnings, equities have also risen on an agreement in Washington to extend the government's borrowing power. On Monday, Fitch Ratings said that agreement removed the near-term risk to the country's 'AAA' rating.


Previously, the agency said the lack of an agreement would prompt a review of the sovereign rating.


In company news, Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc said a late-stage trial of its experimental kidney disease drug met the main study goal of reducing phosphate levels in blood, sending shares up 43 percent to $4.91.


Bargain hunters may look to Apple Inc in the first session after the tech giant lost its coveted title as the largest U.S. company by market capitalization to Exxon Mobil Corp . Apple rose 0.7 percent to $443.06.


On Friday, Apple's market cap fell to $413 billion, down roughly $250 billion from its September peak. Apple's fall is about equal to the entire value of Google Inc .


"Apple is pretty attractive right now, so you may see an opportunity here," said Chris Bertelsen, who helps oversee $1.5 billion as chief investment officer of Global Financial Private Capital in Sarasota, Florida. "Those who think the stock is dead have made a big mistake."


(Editing by W Simon, Kenneth Barry and Nick Zieminski)



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Space Junk Menace: How to Deal with Orbital Debris






The saga of what steps that must be taken to deal with the evolving threat of Earth-circling orbital debris is a work in progress.  This menacing problem — and the possible cleanup solutions — is international in scope.


Space junk is an assortment of objects in Earth orbit that is a mix of everything from spent rocket stages, derelict satellites, chunks of busted up spacecraft to paint chips, springs and bolts. A satellite crash in February 2009, for example, marked the first accidental hypervelocity crash between two intact artificial satellites in Earth orbit. That cosmic crash created significant debris — a worrisome amount of leftover bits and pieces.






Against this backdrop of untidiness in space and the global worry among spacefaring countries it causes, experts continue to tackle the issue of exactly what to do about orbital debris. A number of rules have been pondered to address the space debris problem, from regulations that attempt to cut down on the shedding of new debris to better tracking of the human-made refuge, as well as scavenging concepts including fishing nets, lasers and garbage scows.


But how to best characterize the orbital debris dilemma, and its future, also stirs up debate and heated dialogue.


Point of no return


The clutter in Earth orbit is a situation that will continue to worsen, according to Marshall Kaplan, founder and principal of Launchspace in Bethesda, Md.


“The problem is that we’ve already fallen off that cliff,” Kaplan told SPACE.com. “That’s the reality of it and people don’t want to admit that reality.” [Photos of Space Junk & Cleanup Ideas]


Spending millions of dollars to retrieve space junk isn’t effective, Kaplan said.


Now, ways to better track and identify space debris are being devised. Low-Earth orbit is where the main problem is — from roughly 435 miles (700 kilometers) to about 745 miles (1,200 km), he said.


“It’s a serious, serious challenge,” Kaplan said. “This is not a U.S. problem … it’s everybody’s problem. And most of the people that produced the debris, the serious offenders, like Russia, China, and the United States, are not going to spend that kind of money. It’s just not a good investment.”


While the creation of orbiting junk continues rise with each rocket launch, there is no market for tackling the issue directly, Kaplan said.


“We’ve reached the point of no return. The debris will continue to get worse in terms of collision threats … even if not another satellite were launched, the problem will continue to get worse,” he added.


Speeding debris crashes


Kaplan said the frequency of collisions between active satellites and debris pieces is going to increase.


The real question, Kaplan said, is not what everyone is going to do about debris. Rather, the true question is what needs to be done about active satellites in harm’s way of speeding riffraff.


“My prediction is that we are going to evacuate the areas of high debris density. It’s just too dangerous to operate there. We’re going to need to reinvent how we use space,” Kaplan said. [Worst Space Debris Events of All Time]


In the case of large national security satellite assets, one option may be to distribute smaller satellites in lower altitudes, Kaplan added. These multiple layers of spacecraft would collectively create virtual products, such as imagery and other intelligence data. The users of this information would receive the same kind of data, but from a different satellite constellation, he said.


As one step toward that future, Kaplan is working with multiple universities to help establish new research centers on space debris and a next-generation national security space architecture.


Environmental stability


Darren McKnight, technical director for Integrity Applications Incorporated, headquartered in Chantilly, Va., suggested that the current debate on active debris removal and the evolution of the debris environment is still developing.


McKnight said that, currently, policymakers and engineers examine environmental stability, preventing the cascading of derelict collisions from increasing exponentially over the next century. This scenario, known as the “Kessler Syndrome,” is the primary metric to judge how many derelicts need to be removed and when they should be removed.


The Kessler Syndrome is one in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade. Each collision generates space debris, which increases the likelihood of further collisions. [Solar Sails Could Sweep Up Space Junk (Video)]


“The overall issue is that as we continue to consider active debris removal options, I question whether or not environment stability is the only metric to be tracking,” McKnight told SPACE.com.


Lethal space debris


McKnight, along with company colleague Frank Di Pentino, propose that the probability of satellite failure from impact from non-trackable, yet lethal debris fragments — in the 5 millimeter to 10 centimeter size range — is a more appropriate metric. The reason is because it directly reflects harmful effects of space debris on space operations. Furthermore, these effects are likely to occur much sooner than observable manifestations of the cascading effect.


McKnight and Di Pentino’s research suggests that any mitigation scheme, be it just-in-time collision avoidance, active debris removal or other methods, cannot rely on a model that does not account for projected add rates, new launches on other factors. They contend that collision rate is “not a sufficient metric” for assessing operational risk.


Wanted: A long-term plan


There is much work to do regarding orbital debris, said Donald Kessler, chair of the 2011 National Research Council (NRC) report “Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs.” He is a retired head of NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office and is a space debris and meteoroid consultant in Asheville, N.C.


Kessler said that the NRC committee that produced the report strongly felt that what was missing from the programs was a long-term strategic plan — one that outlined a path that eventually determines how  manage future space operations in a way that preserves the environment.


“However, this is not simply a NASA issue … it is an international issue, and will require a carefully coordinated effort,” Kessler said.


Can the space junk problem be solved?


NASA and the international community, Kessler said, “have already done enough research to know that the environment will continue to get worse if we continue on the same path … the only environmental issue to be resolved is how quickly the environment in various regions deteriorates.”


The international community, through the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), has been very active in understanding the current environmental trends, sharing information and establishing internationally recognized mitigation requirements.


However, Kessler said that current mitigation practices are insufficient, even with 100 percent compliance. Missing in action is a plan to determine what do about the predicted worsening space environment, he said — that is, how to stop or reverse the trend of increased debris resulting from increased collisions.


Sustainable environment


Kessler added that the fundamental issues to be resolved are:


  • How do we minimize the possibility of future high-velocity collisions between spacecraft and upper stage rockets?

  • If we cannot eliminate that prospect, how do we clean up after a collision?

“Removal from orbit, collision avoidance, satellite servicing and repair, satellite recycling in orbit, debris storage locations, change to using a ‘stable plane’ at higher altitudes especially in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) … are all possibilities,” Kessler added. “Some are mutually exclusive and may not be appropriate at all altitudes, while others could combine to be more effective.”


Still to be sorted out is what type of legal structure might be needed in order to implement any plan, Kessler said.


“I believe it is time that the international community takes a serious look at the future of space operations,” Kessler said. “There’s need to begin a process to answer these questions and determine which path will most effectively provide a sustainable environment for spacecraft in Earth orbit.”


Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is former director of research for the National Commission on Space and a past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society’s Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He has written for SPACE.com since 1999.


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